Return Of El-Nino

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BY WINNIE KENDY MUTURI

Kenya is among the countries at risk of excessive rainfall according to the prediction of the Global Information and Early Warning System update by the Food and Agriculture Organisation.

Other countries include Afghanistan, Argentina, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Bhutan, Iran, Iraq, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Mexico, Pakistan, Paraguay, Syria, Tajikistan, and Turkey. Turkmenistan, the United States, Uruguay, and Uzbekistan.

According to FAO, El Nino will return in 2023 following a three-year La-Nina phase.

El Niño refers to the above-average sea-surface temperatures that periodically develop across the east-central equatorial Pacific. It represents the warm phase of the ENSO cycle.

La Niña on the other hand, refers to the periodic cooling of sea-surface temperatures across the east-central equatorial Pacific.

El Nino mostly occurs between 3 to 5 years leading to excess rainfall and flooding in the East Africa region.

The occurrence is forecast to return in June 2023 with dry weather conditions expected in key cropping areas of Central America, Southern Africa and far East Asia, and East Africa according to the Food and Agricultural Organization.

The third continuous La Nina event was experienced globally in 2022 and early 2023, a golden occurrence that has happened only twice since 1950.

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