Tifa Poll Shows 73 Per Cent Of ODM Supporters Back Sifuna Camp
News Updated: 14 May 2026 18:07 EAT
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A new survey by research firm Trends and Insights For Africa (TIFA) has exposed deep divisions within the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM), with the majority of supporters backing the “Linda Mwananchi” faction linked to Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna over the “Linda Ground” camp associated with Oburu Odinga.
According to the poll released on Thursday, May 14, 2026, 73 per cent of ODM supporters said they support the Sifuna-led Linda Mwananchi faction, while 24 per cent backed Oburu’s Linda Ground group. Another 3 per cent of respondents said they remain undecided.
The survey found that ODM supporters are increasingly favouring a more independent opposition approach instead of closer cooperation with President William Ruto’s Kenya Kwanza administration. TIFA noted that strong support for Linda Mwananchi reflects growing grassroots preference for leaders perceived to be defending public interests and holding the government accountable.
The divisions within ODM reportedly intensified after the death of longtime party leader Raila Odinga on October 15, 2025, while receiving treatment in India. Following his death, Oburu Odinga assumed leadership of the party, a move that triggered resistance from sections of ODM leaders and supporters.
The two factions remain sharply divided on ODM’s relationship with the government. Oburu’s Linda Ground faction supports the broad-based cooperation agreement between ODM and President Ruto’s administration, while Sifuna’s Linda Mwananchi camp wants the party to remain firmly in opposition and cut ties with Kenya Kwanza.
TIFA further established that opposition to the broad-based arrangement is strongest among Linda Mwananchi supporters. Among ODM supporters opposed to the broad-based government, 90 per cent support Sifuna’s faction. However, among those supporting cooperation with the government, opinion is nearly split, with 51 per cent backing Linda Ground and 47 per cent favouring Linda Mwananchi.
The poll also showed declining national support for the ODM-UDA cooperation deal. About 56 per cent of Kenyans now oppose the broad-based government arrangement, compared to 30 per cent who support it, marking a significant shift from late 2025 when support levels were considerably higher.
The survey was conducted between May 2 and May 11, 2026, involving 2,013 respondents sampled across nine regions including Nairobi, Nyanza, Western, Coast, Rift Valley and Mt Kenya.
The Linda Mwananchi faction is associated with leaders such as Edwin Sifuna, Embakasi East MP Babu Owino and Siaya Governor James Orengo, who have maintained a more confrontational stance against the government.
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FELIX MAKONA
FACT FINDER AND DATA DRIVEN JOURNALIST. DATA MINING AT IT'S BEST. GET FACTS RANGING FROM MATTERS DISABILITY AND INCLUSION, POLITICS, ECONOMY, SPORTS AND GENERAL NEWS AROUND THE WORLD