Horn Of Africa Likely To Receive Heavier Rains From March To May, IGAD Warns
Politics Updated: 28 January 2026 15:30 EAT
The workshop is supported by the WISER Pan-African Seasonal Strengthening (WISER PASS) project which is implemented through strategic partnership between the UK Met Office and ICPAC.
The Horn of Africa region is likely to experience significantly wetter-than-normal conditions during the March to May long rains season, with a 45 per cent probability of above-average rainfall, according to the latest climate outlook by the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD).
The forecast, released through the IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC), indicates that large parts of the Greater Horn of Africa are expected to receive enhanced rainfall during the period, raising both opportunities for recovery and risks of weather-related hazards.
Countries expected to experience heavier-than-normal rainfall include Kenya, Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, Tanzania, Ethiopia, South Sudan, northern Somalia and Djibouti, particularly in central and western zones.
In Kenya, however, the outlook shows a mixed picture. ICPAC projects a 40 per cent probability of near-normal rainfall in north-eastern and south-western parts of the country, even as other regions are likely to receive above-average precipitation.
Climate experts cautioned that near-normal forecasts do not rule out extreme events, noting that rainfall variability remains possible across all forecast zones during the season.
The agency further noted that the onset of the long rains is expected to be normal to early in most parts of the region, although some localized areas could experience delayed starts.
In addition to rainfall, IGAD warned of generally warmer-than-average temperatures across much of the Horn of Africa, which could intensify impacts such as flooding, soil erosion and water stress.
Authorities have urged governments, humanitarian agencies and communities to strengthen early warning systems and preparedness measures to mitigate potential risks associated with the forecast.
The March to May rains are critical for agriculture, water resources and food security across the region, making the seasonal outlook a key planning tool for farmers and policymakers alike.
Tags: Igad Signs Media Kenya Limited Signstvkenya Weatherman
Share this article
FELIX MAKONA
FACT FINDER AND DATA DRIVEN JOURNALIST. DATA MINING AT IT'S BEST. GET FACTS RANGING FROM MATTERS DISABILITY AND INCLUSION, POLITICS, ECONOMY, SPORTS AND GENERAL NEWS AROUND THE WORLD